Why does Expected Value matter?

Humans chase vivid jackpots and ignore odds. Expected value brings calm math (even rough math) back into founder decisions.

What is a common mistake with Expected Value?

Fake precision - made-up 73.2% odds aren't better than honest ranges.

Lesson60 seconds

What is Expected Value?

Weigh how big a win could be against how likely it is.

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Napkin definition

Expected value is a simple way to compare bets: imagine each possible outcome, weight it by how likely it is, and see which choice looks better on average.

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Tap a persona to hear the same idea in a totally different voice.

Try “Like I'm 5™” for a picture-book version - not the grown-up wording above.

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What is Expected Value?

📝Napkin definition

What is Expected Value?

📝Napkin definition

Napkin definition

Napkin definition